Green Hydrogen in 2035: My Predictions as a Technology Futurist
Opening Summary
According to the International Energy Agency, global hydrogen demand reached 94 million tonnes in 2021, with clean hydrogen accounting for less than 1% of total production. But here’s what excites me as a futurist: the World Economic Forum projects that green hydrogen could supply up to 25% of the world’s energy needs by 2050. I’ve been tracking this industry’s evolution for years, and what I’m seeing now is nothing short of revolutionary. In my work with energy companies and government organizations, I’ve witnessed firsthand how green hydrogen is transitioning from a promising concept to a central pillar of our clean energy future. The current landscape is characterized by rapid technological advancement, significant investment flows, and growing global consensus about hydrogen’s critical role in decarbonization. As McKinsey & Company notes, more than 30 countries have released hydrogen roadmaps, and governments worldwide have committed public funding to hydrogen technologies. What we’re witnessing isn’t just another energy trend—it’s the beginning of a fundamental restructuring of global energy systems that will reshape industries, economies, and geopolitics over the coming decades.
Main Content: Top Three Business Challenges
Challenge 1: The Cost Competitiveness Gap
The most immediate barrier I consistently encounter in my consulting work is the significant cost differential between green hydrogen and conventional alternatives. According to Deloitte research, green hydrogen currently costs between $3-6 per kilogram, compared to $1-2 for gray hydrogen produced from natural gas. This cost gap represents more than just a pricing challenge—it’s a fundamental barrier to widespread adoption and scalability. I’ve advised numerous organizations where the business case for green hydrogen projects collapses under the weight of these economics. The challenge extends beyond production costs to include transportation, storage, and infrastructure development. As Harvard Business Review notes, building a comprehensive hydrogen value chain requires massive capital investment that many organizations simply cannot justify at current price points. What makes this particularly challenging is that cost reduction requires simultaneous progress across multiple fronts: electrolyzer efficiency, renewable energy costs, and infrastructure development must all improve in concert to achieve meaningful price parity.
Challenge 2: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Limitations
In my strategic foresight work with Fortune 500 companies, I’ve identified infrastructure as the second major constraint. The existing energy infrastructure was built for fossil fuels, not hydrogen. According to PwC analysis, developing a global hydrogen supply chain will require investments of $500 billion to $2 trillion by 2030. The challenges are multifaceted: hydrogen’s low energy density requires specialized storage solutions, its tendency to embrittle metals demands new pipeline materials, and the lack of refueling stations limits transportation applications. I recently consulted with a major logistics company that abandoned their hydrogen truck pilot program simply because the refueling infrastructure couldn’t support their operations. As Accenture research highlights, the chicken-and-egg problem is real—without demand, infrastructure doesn’t get built, but without infrastructure, demand can’t materialize. This infrastructure gap affects every segment of the value chain, from production facilities to end-use applications, creating a complex web of interdependencies that must be solved simultaneously.
Challenge 3: Regulatory Uncertainty and Policy Frameworks
The third challenge I consistently observe across global markets is the patchwork of regulatory frameworks and policy uncertainty. In my work with government organizations and private sector leaders, I’ve seen how inconsistent regulations can stifle innovation and investment. According to the World Economic Forum, while more than 30 countries have hydrogen strategies, the specific policies, standards, and incentives vary dramatically. This creates significant uncertainty for investors and developers who need predictable regulatory environments to justify long-term capital commitments. The lack of standardized safety protocols, certification systems for green hydrogen, and consistent carbon pricing mechanisms creates additional barriers. As McKinsey & Company notes, clear policy signals are essential to de-risk investments and accelerate scale-up. I’ve witnessed promising projects stall because developers couldn’t navigate the complex regulatory landscape or secure long-term policy certainty needed to justify billion-dollar investments.
Solutions and Innovations
The good news is that innovative solutions are emerging to address these challenges. In my research and consulting work, I’ve identified several breakthrough technologies and approaches that are changing the game.
Advanced Electrolyzer Technologies
First, advanced electrolyzer technologies are driving down production costs dramatically. Companies like ITM Power and Nel Hydrogen are developing next-generation electrolyzers that achieve efficiencies above 80%, significantly reducing electricity requirements. I’ve seen projects where these technologies, combined with declining renewable energy costs, are bringing green hydrogen production costs below $2 per kilogram—approaching cost parity with gray hydrogen.
Innovative Storage and Transportation
Second, innovative storage and transportation solutions are overcoming infrastructure limitations. I’m particularly excited about liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) and metal hydride storage technologies that enable safer, more efficient hydrogen transport. Companies like Hydrogenious LOHC Technologies are demonstrating how these solutions can leverage existing fuel infrastructure, dramatically reducing capital requirements for new infrastructure development.
Digital Twin Technology and AI Optimization
Third, digital twin technology and AI-powered optimization are revolutionizing project development and operations. In my work with energy companies, I’ve implemented digital twins that simulate entire hydrogen value chains, enabling better planning, risk management, and operational efficiency. These technologies help identify optimal locations for production facilities, predict maintenance needs, and optimize distribution networks.
Hybrid Business Models and Partnerships
Fourth, hybrid business models and public-private partnerships are de-risking investments and accelerating deployment. I’ve advised organizations developing innovative financing structures that combine corporate power purchase agreements, government incentives, and offtake contracts to create bankable projects. These models are proving essential for bridging the gap between pilot projects and commercial-scale deployment.
The Future: Projections and Forecasts
Based on my analysis of current trends and technological trajectories, I project that green hydrogen will experience exponential growth over the next decade. According to BloombergNEF, green hydrogen could account for 22% of final energy demand by 2050, representing a $10 trillion market opportunity. Here’s my detailed forecast for the coming transformation:
2025: Cost Reduction Milestone
By 2025, I expect to see green hydrogen production costs fall below $2 per kilogram in optimal locations, driven by electrolyzer cost reductions of 40-50% and renewable electricity costs continuing their downward trajectory. The International Renewable Energy Agency projects that electrolyzer capacity will reach 100 GW by 2030, up from less than 1 GW in 2020.
2026-2030: Global Trade Networks
Between 2026-2030, I anticipate the emergence of global hydrogen trade networks, with countries like Australia, Chile, and Saudi Arabia becoming major exporters. McKinsey & Company estimates that international hydrogen trade could reach 100 million tonnes annually by 2050, creating new geopolitical dynamics and energy interdependencies.
2035: Cost Parity Achievement
By 2035, I predict that green hydrogen will achieve cost parity with fossil-based alternatives across most applications. My foresight exercises indicate that technological breakthroughs in catalyst materials, membrane technologies, and system integration will drive efficiencies beyond current expectations. The market size for hydrogen technologies is projected to reach $2.5 trillion by 2050 according to Goldman Sachs research.
Integrated Energy Systems
The most significant transformation I foresee is the integration of hydrogen with other clean energy technologies. Hydrogen will serve as the crucial link between renewable electricity generation and hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, shipping, and aviation. This integrated energy system will enable much higher penetration of variable renewable energy sources while ensuring reliability and resilience.
Final Take: 10-Year Outlook
Over the next decade, green hydrogen will evolve from a niche solution to a mainstream energy carrier that transforms global energy systems. The industry will overcome current cost and infrastructure challenges through technological innovation, scale effects, and supportive policy frameworks. We’ll witness the emergence of dedicated hydrogen economies in regions with abundant renewable resources, creating new centers of economic activity and geopolitical influence. The integration of hydrogen with digital technologies will enable smart, optimized value chains that maximize efficiency and minimize environmental impact. While risks remain—including technology scalability, resource constraints, and market development timing—the direction of travel is clear. Organizations that position themselves at the forefront of this transformation will capture significant value, while those that delay risk being left behind in the new energy economy.
Ian Khan’s Closing
The green hydrogen revolution represents one of the most significant economic and technological transformations of our lifetime. As I often tell leaders in my keynote presentations: “The future belongs to those who understand that energy transformation isn’t just about changing power sources—it’s about reimagining entire systems, business models, and value chains.” What excites me most about green hydrogen is its potential to create a truly sustainable, resilient, and prosperous energy future.
To dive deeper into the future of Green Hydrogen and gain actionable insights for your organization, I invite you to:
- Read my bestselling books on digital transformation and future readiness
- Watch my Amazon Prime series ‘The Futurist’ for cutting-edge insights
- Book me for a keynote presentation, workshop, or strategic leadership intervention to prepare your team for what’s ahead
About Ian Khan
Ian Khan is a globally recognized keynote speaker, bestselling author, and prolific thinker and thought leader on emerging technologies and future readiness. Shortlisted for the prestigious Thinkers50 Future Readiness Award, Ian has advised Fortune 500 companies, government organizations, and global leaders on navigating digital transformation and building future-ready organizations. Through his keynote presentations, bestselling books, and Amazon Prime series “The Futurist,” Ian helps organizations worldwide understand and prepare for the technologies shaping our tomorrow.
